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Doris，Naisbitt，John，Naisbitt，Laurence ... 著

图书标签:

• 一带一路
• 地缘政治
• 全球化
• 中国经济
• 基础设施建设
• 国际关系
• 发展中国家
• 区域发展
• 战略规划
• 新兴市场

出版社： 中华工商联合出版社

ISBN：9787515820675

版次：1

商品编码：12174947

包装：精装

开本：16开

出版时间：2017-09-01

用纸：胶版纸

页数：216

字数：200000

正文语种：英文

内容简介

　　China's Belt and Road Initiative is a project of unprecedented scale.
　　Neverthelcss， know[edge about the potitico[， ocoriomir nnd rcjltural goals and opportunities are Lagging behind.
　　Creating Megatrends presents the narrative of the chances and risks in China's Belt and Road Initiative. In the past， Large shifts in economic. technological and social developments have resulted from trends and ideas beginning bottom up in cities and Loca[ communities. finally forming a Megatrend. No one was in charge. China's Belt and Road Initiative goes the opposite way.
　　China's Initiative offers the strategic framework of reinventing globalization， orchestrated， but Leaving space to maneuver for all p.irticipants. The underlying principal is sharing： China's own exponcnce， its economic Succoss story of developing through investments in road.rait and port networks，and smart ec o[ogical citics. It is working with nations， involving advanced technologies， management experience. It is stabililing Volatile reqions and COuntrics by helping thcm to find their own approach to progress and development.
　　Belt and Road Initiative is creating the infrastructure and connectivity needed to Link communities and create and Leverage on economic opportunities for state and private investment， entrepreneurs and workmen. At the same time， involving smart infrastructure， clean energy and ecological cities， the Initiative calls for protection of environment and heritage as part of a cultural exchange.
　　These high set goals cannot be reach without creating a new and solid foundation aside of the o[d Bretton Woods System. Belt and Road Initiative is developing a new model of global governance， a new financiaL architecture， new financial institutions and multilateral development banks.
　　More than 60 percent of the world's population in more than a hundred nations are involved. Crpating Megatrends highlights the opportunities， challenges and risks th：s grand and experimontal project is facing.

作者简介

　　Doris Naisbitt， an observer of global social, economic and political trends.Director of the Naisbitt China Institute. co-author of Global Game Change : Howthe Globat Southern aett Witt Reshape Our World IJanuary zoisL China'sMegatrends: Eight Pillars of a New Society, The China Model and Innovation in China.In addition to her research on future global developments Doris Naisbitt isdedicated to foster personal growth. Xinhua. the official press agency of Chinacalled her the 'global philosopher for China's youth". Her personaL experiencethat one can start a successful career Later in Life has inspired audiences and encouraged people to reinvent their own Lives.
　　How to make the most of your talents was the red Line of Ooris Naisbitt's biweekly column in China Youth Daily, China's second Largest newspaper. Her columns were collectively published in the book: How to Get Where You Want to Go. To bridge cultural differences between China and the US and to find and build on common grounds is the story Line her book Mai-Lin My China.
　　Doris Naisbitt is guest professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University, she holds protessorships at prestfgious Nankai University and Jilin University, and at Yunnan University and Skolkovo Open University Moscow as well as a honorary Doctor of South Korea's Pukyong National University.
　　
　　John Naisbitt, author of the # 1 New York Times bestseller Megatrends, has been in the Limelight of the publishing worLd ever since the book was published 1982. It remained on the New York Times bestsetler for almost two years, mostLy as number one. Megatrends was one of publishing's greatest success stories, selling more than 1t million copies in 57 countries. The Watt Street Journal called John Naisbitt's work 'triumphantly usefuL...taking bearings in all directions and giving us the courage to do the same."
　　t-kgatrends was followed by internationaL bestsellers: Re-inventing the Corporation in 1 9as, Megatrands 2000 in 1990. Megatrends for Women 1 991 . Global Paradox 1 992, Megatrends Asia 1995. High Tech High Touch, 1 999 and MindSet! in 2006.
　　John Naisbitt holds 21 honorary doctor degrees and protessorships from American, Chinese and Russian Universities and is honorary Doctor of South Korea's Pukyong National University.
　　In his early career John Naisbitt was an executive at Kadak and IBM. At age 34 John Naisbitt was appointed assistant secretary of education to President John Kennedy. After the president's assassination he was appointed special assistant to President Lyndon _lohnson. Urged by the social and racial turbulences in America's cities John Naisbitt began to analyse social economic and political developments in the US. which ted to publishing Megatrends in 1982.
　　Doris and John Naisbitt
　　After working together as publisher and author from 1995 to 2000, John Naisbitt and Doris Naisbitt. his former German Language publisher, married in 2000 and began their collaboration as co-authors. They speak to audiences in Asia, Latin America, Africa, Europe and the US, and have appeared on many television programs, written for first-tier publications, and addressed numerous government and policymaking institutions.
　　
　　Laurence J. Brahm， is an international crisis mediation lawyer and developmental economist. He is founder of the Himalayan Consensus, a regionaL multi-stakeholder multi-lateral process dedicated to the prevention of conftict over water resources due to climate disruption.
　　Between 2013-2015. as Senior Advisor to China's Ministry of Environmental Protection he was Lead drafter of 'EcologicaL Civilization-. China's 'green print' for renewable energy and water conservation. During this period he also served as advisor to Bhutan's National Environmental Commission. In 2015 Iceland's President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson invited him to serve on the HimaLaya - Third
　　Pole Circle, a panel forming poLicy responses to glacial melt caused by cLimate change. In 2012 as NGO spokesperson to the United Nations Earth Summit 2012
　　IRio+20J, he was seLected by ScenaRio as one of the "100 Opinion Leaders Advising R1o+20". In 2010 he received the UNDP Award for Bio-Diversity and
　　CuLturaL Protection in China presented by Jane Goodall. In 2008 China Central Television selected him as the only foreigner among ten individuals recognized tor contributing to China's three decades of econamic reforms and opening.
　　As explorer and documentary film director, between 2002-2009 he Led a series ofthree expeditions across the ainghai-Tibet pLateau searching for the mythical kingdom of Shangri-la, for which he was elected Fellow International of the New York ExpLorer's Club in 2015. In 2016, dubbed "The Millennium Expedi-tions" by Three Shadows Photography Art Center, the 'Searching for Shangri-la' documentary series received the National Geographic Air and Water Conserva-tion Award for raising awareness of the glabal climate crisis.In 2017. the School of International Journalism and Communicatian, Beijing Foreign Studies University, appointed him "People-to-People Ambassador for Cultural Communications on the Belt and Road Initiative".

目录

Introduction to a high potential project l
Chapter One Introduction Into China's Belt and Road Initiative l
Thinking local acting global
Increase the quality of exports
Proceeding on ever higher levels

Chapter Two B&R; in the global context
The political aspect of B&R;
The econonuc reach of B&R;
At the crossroadl
China's changing image
Keeping the momentum of growth
Infrastructure networks to assure market accessibility
Strategically shifting growth
China's B&R; risk considerations
Security through economic progress and hope

Chapter Three The Creation of a Megatrend
Regional and intemational cooperation instead of confrontation
The Belt and Road： Visions and Question
Question 1： What does the Belt and Road stand for?
Question 2： What are the historical roots of the Belt and Road?
Question 3： What are the 2lst century routes of B&R;?l
The Belt and Road Initiative： Six Economic Corridors
Spanning Asia， Europe and Africa l
The six key routes：
The six strategic international economic co-operation corridors：
The six international economic co-operation corridors
1． The new Eurasia Land Bridge
2． The China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor
3． China-Central Asia- West Asia Economic Corridor
4． China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor
5． China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
6． Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor
China's role as a marine superpower
……
Chapter Four Question 5： What are the continents involved?
Chapter Five Question 6： Which are the countries joining? l
Chapter Six Question 7： How will the Belt and Road be funded?
Chapter Eight Question 9： What are B&R; sector strategies?
Chapter Nine Question 10： What are China's six domestic B&R; strategies?
Chapter Ten Question 11： Will the yuan become a reserve currency?
Chapter Eleven B&R;'s Environmental Policy
Chapter Twelve Green Finance in a Green Silk Road
Chapter Thirteen Re-inventing Globalization
Silk Road Timeline
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

精彩书摘

　　《Creating Megatrends：The Belt and Road》：
　　On a global scale China presents B&R; as part: of a "democratizationof intemational relations" and the transition from a westem dominatedeconomic and political framework to a multipolar economic and politicalorder in which China plays an adequate role at the core of global affairsand a leading role in emerging economies.
　　The Belt and Road (B&R;) will become an engine for China'sgrowth, and it will feed the demand of developing neighbors andprovide infrastructure for the regions along its routes. The aim is tocreate an efficient, sustained road, rail and shipping network betweenChina, Asia, Europe, Africa, and, in the longer-term extension, Latin America. One goal is to shorten the time of bulk consumer goods' transports to Europe. It is expected to cut overland travel from Beijing to London to just two days, a trip that in 2016 took 15 days.
　　Given the comprehensive impact of such an initiative it is no surprise that it does not only face enthusiastic and positive but also critical and even hostile reactions. As we already wrote, it involves economic, political, and geopolitical considerations and strategies.
　　There are not only wide-ranging differences in political systems, histories, cultures, religions and ideologies, but also different ideas and approaches in how to deal with contemporary economic and social matters. Some countries along the different routes are in unstable political and/or economic conditions. The key to stability will be to operate on a common denominator that allows connecting and cooperating as well as keeping enough space to pay attention to autonomous needs. While China without doubt is the initiator and
　　driver of B&R;, its affirmation to create partnerships on par with all
　　countries involved will help to calm down skepticism and create trust.
　　According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the total amount of merchandise traded globally in 2015 reached $16.5 trillion.
　　What will be the impact of the new trading routes, which will embrace 62.55 percent of the world's population and 28.6 percent of the world's GDP? This is a question that the govemments and businesses of all countries will need to answer in the near future, because this new trade route is being built, and it will usher in a new world trade order,all at a time when global trade has slowed from the 7 percent annual growth it reached prior to the 2008 financial crisis, to 1.5 percent in 2015 and 2016.
　　Looking back at three decades of South and North East Asia economic development, the share of manufacturing in GDP rose above 25 percent in South East Asia and 30 percent in North East Asia. In the tail of the rapid gTowth of manufacturing, the employment rate and productivity rose, as well.
　　At the same time, improvements were made in the skills of workers, by better training of management and the expertise and efforts of increasingly global thinking entrepreneurs. But despite all the achievements, export-processing trade has declined. China's total exports fell to minus 1.8 in 2015 and minus 2 percent in 2016 (GACC, General Administration of Customs of China) .
　　……

深度剖析：全球化新范式的演进与未来 图书名称： 权力、流动与身份重塑：全球秩序的碎片化与再整合 作者： 埃莉诺·范德堡 (Eleanor Vanderbilt) 译者： （此处留空，模拟未翻译版本或注重原著的独立性） 内容提要： 《权力、流动与身份重塑：全球秩序的碎片化与再整合》是一部宏大而精微的社会学与地缘政治学交叉研究著作。本书并非关注某一特定宏伟基础设施项目如何改变世界，而是深入探究在后冷战时代，技术进步、资本过度流动与文化民族主义的张力如何共同作用，导致既有的全球治理结构面临前所未有的结构性挑战。 范德堡教授以其独到的跨学科视角，将目光投向了全球化进程中那些被主流叙事所忽视的“次级效应”——即在大型、自上而下的全球性倡议之外，地方社区、非国家行为体以及边缘化群体如何重新定义其生存空间与权力关系。本书的核心论点在于，我们正处于一个由“超主权实体”与“微观能动性”激烈碰撞所界定的过渡时期。 全书共分为五大部分，层层递进，构建了一个复杂而富有洞察力的分析框架。 --- 第一部分：范式转移的理论基础：从均质化到异质性回归 本部分首先对过去三十年的主流全球化理论进行了深刻的反思。作者认为，那种基于线性进步和文化趋同的“麦克卢汉式”预测已经失效。全球化并未带来世界主义的胜利，反而催生了强烈的“反向引力”。 范德堡引入了“摩擦性互联”的概念，用以描述现代世界中，信息、货物和人员的流动虽然达到了前所未有的速度，但其背后却潜藏着越来越深的意识形态和制度性阻力。她详细分析了信息技术（如加密货币、去中心化自治组织DAO的兴起）如何挑战了传统的国家主权边界，同时也指出，这种技术赋权往往被新的数字霸权所吸收和利用。 书中对“数字民族主义”的探讨尤为深刻。这不仅指国家对数据和平台的管控，更指向了一种通过构建“网络文化共同体”来抵御外部影响的社会心理防御机制。作者通过对东亚和拉丁美洲几个案例的比较研究，揭示了不同文化背景下，抵抗全球化同质化压力的具体路径。 第二部分：资本流动的“幽灵化”与金融主权的重构 本部分聚焦于资本的形态变化及其对国家治理能力的腐蚀。不同于关注贸易逆差或直接投资的传统经济学视角，范德堡将焦点放在了“影子金融”和“瞬间资本”上。 她探讨了无形资产、知识产权与高频交易如何使传统基于领土的税收和监管体系形同虚设。通过对离岸金融中心（OFCs）与跨国公司内部结算机制的案例分析，作者描绘了一幅权力被重新分配给不透明的、技术驱动的金融网络图景。 特别值得注意的是，本章详细剖析了新兴市场国家在应对资本周期性外流冲击时所采取的“防御性主权工具”，例如资本管制和本土化金融创新。这些措施并非是对全球化的简单拒绝，而是在现有体系内寻求生存空间的一种复杂博弈。范德堡强调，金融的“去地域化”正在迫使政治权力回归到“监管的微观化”和“联盟化”的路径上来。 第三部分：身份政治的“内爆”与城邦化（City-State-ization）趋势 如果说第一部分关注宏观理论，第二部分关注资本，那么第三部分则将目光投向了社会肌理。作者认为，全球化带来的移民、信息爆炸和传统阶层固化，共同催生了身份认同的剧烈重组。 书中引入了“地方化身份的激进化”这一概念。在全球性叙事失信的背景下，个体转向更小、更可感的身份单元（如族裔、宗教、城市社区）寻求安全感和归属感。范德堡对几个欧洲和北美大都市圈的案例进行了细致的社会调查，展示了“超级城市”内部如何形成高度自治的、具有内部治理能力的“事实城邦”。 这种趋势的后果是复杂的：一方面，它促进了地方创新和社区韧性；另一方面，它加剧了城市内部的社会隔离，并使得国家层面的社会政策越来越难以推行。作者挑战了将身份政治简单地视为保守回潮的观点，认为它更是一种对全球化带来的“无根性”的结构性反应。 第四部分：治理模式的“多中心化”：联盟、网络与规则的裂变 本部分着眼于国际关系层面，探讨在传统国际组织（如WTO、联合国）效率下降的背景下，全球治理权力是如何分散到各种非正式联盟和技术标准制定机构中的。 范德堡系统梳理了“规制地缘政治”（Regulatory Geopolitics）的兴起。她认为，真正的权力不再仅仅是军事或经济力量的展现，而是对关键技术标准（如5G、AI伦理、碳排放核算）的制定权和解释权的争夺。 本书对“民主联盟的碎片化”进行了深入分析。作者观察到，西方民主国家之间在应对非传统安全威胁时，越来越倾向于建立“小圈子”（Minilateralism）而非依赖大规模多边机构。这种模式虽然提高了决策速度，但也意味着全球治理的规则制定权正在向少数拥有技术和资本优势的精英集团集中，进一步边缘化了发展中国家的声音。 第五部分：未来展望：韧性、适应性与新“世界体系”的萌芽 在结论部分，范德堡总结了当前全球秩序的特征：高流动性、低粘性、高摩擦。她认为，我们并非正走向一个“新冷战”，而是一个更加复杂、更加动态的“多极混合体”（Poly-Hybrid System）。 她提出了“适应性韧性”作为未来社会可持续发展的核心要素。这要求政策制定者放弃对稳定和均质化的追求，转而构建能够吸收冲击、快速调整的本地和区域网络。 《权力、流动与身份重塑》最终指向一个重要的哲学问题：在一个边界日益模糊但冲突却日益尖锐的世界里，我们如何重新定义“共同体”的意义？这本书提供了一个深刻的、不带偏见的框架，帮助读者理解，决定我们未来走向的，并非单一的宏大叙事，而是无数微观力量在结构性张力下的持续博弈。 --- 本书特点： 概念创新： 提出了“摩擦性互联”、“数字民族主义”、“适应性韧性”等多个具有高度解释力的理论工具。 扎实案例： 结合了对金融科技、城市规划、身份政治的跨学科案例分析，避免了空泛的理论推演。 批判性视角： 拒绝简单的二元对立（如全球化 vs 反全球化），深入挖掘了两者内部的复杂互动机制。 适合读者： 国际关系学者、社会学研究人员、政策制定者、关注未来全球趋势的商业领袖及普通知识分子。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

这本书的名字，简直像是一份行动的宣言，它充满了力量和野心。《Creating Megatrends：The Belt and Road》——光是读出来，就让人感觉一股强大的气场扑面而来。我一直在思考，是什么样的洞察力，能够识别并“创造”出引领时代潮流的“巨型趋势”？而“一带一路”这个具体的实践，更是让我联想到无数的地理、文化和经济的交汇点，它不仅仅是一条物理上的通路，更是一种连接世界的全新模式。这本书的书名，让我对“创造”这个词产生了极大的兴趣。它暗示了并非仅仅是观察和描述，而是主动地去塑造和引领。我期待这本书能够深入探讨，这种“创造”的动力究竟源自何方？是某种前瞻性的战略规划，还是市场需求的精准捕捉，亦或是历史进程的必然选择？它能否让我理解，从一个理念的萌芽，到影响全球格局的现实，这个“创造”的过程究竟是怎样的？我渴望通过阅读这本书，能够获得一种超越时空的视角，去理解和把握那些正在改变世界的宏大力量。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

这本书的封面设计就充满了力量感，深邃的蓝色背景上，一条蜿蜒的金线勾勒出广袤的地域，仿佛承载着古老丝绸之路的辉煌与现代“一带一路”的雄心。光是看着它，就足以引发我对未知的好奇和对历史的回溯。我一直在思考，是什么样的力量，能够连接如此辽阔的土地，促成如此宏大的合作？它是否仅仅是一种经济上的互联互通，还是蕴含着更深层次的文化交流和地缘政治的考量？这本书的名字，"Creating Megatrends"，本身就充满了前瞻性和颠覆性，它不仅仅是记录，更是洞察和预测。我期待它能为我揭示，那些看似偶然的事件背后，是如何汇聚成改变世界格局的巨大洪流。同时，"The Belt and Road"这个具体的指向，也让我联想到无数的历史故事和现代的全球化进程，从张骞出使西域到如今的铁路、港口和数字丝绸之路，这条道路的演变本身就充满了传奇色彩。我希望这本书能让我对这一切有一个更全面、更深入的理解，不仅仅是表面的信息，更是其内在的逻辑和深远的影响。这本书仿佛是一扇窗，让我得以窥探一个正在塑造未来的宏大叙事。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

翻开这本书，我脑海中浮现的第一个画面，就是地图。一张铺展巨大的世界地图，上面标注着无数的节点和线路，仿佛一张密织的网，将亚洲、欧洲、非洲紧密相连。我迫切想知道，这张网是如何从无到有，如何一步步构建起来的。它背后是否有某个核心的驱动力，或者是无数个微小力量的汇聚？我很好奇，这本书会如何描绘这种“创造”的过程，它是否会深入探讨决策者的战略眼光，或是普通劳动者辛勤的汗水？“Megatrends”这个词，本身就暗示了一种大规模、深远的趋势，它不仅仅是短期的热点，而是能够重塑文明走向的动力。而“一带一路”作为具体的实践，无疑是当前最引人注目的“巨型趋势”之一。我想了解，它究竟是如何“创造”出来的，而不是被动形成的。这本书能否让我理解，这种“创造”的机制是什么？它涉及到哪些关键要素？是技术创新？是政策引导？还是民间的活力？我期待着它能提供一种全新的视角，让我能够超越媒体的碎片化信息，看到一个更宏大、更连贯的图景。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

从书名的字里行间，我感受到了一种史诗般的叙事张力。这不仅仅是一本关于经济合作的报告，更像是一部关于人类文明互联互通的宏大史诗。我想象着，书页中会流淌出古老驼铃声的回响，也会涌动着现代集装箱轮船的汽笛声。这本书的标题，“Creating Megatrends”，让我对“创造”这个词本身产生了浓厚的兴趣。它不仅仅是“存在”，而是“被创造”出来的。那么，是谁在创造？用什么方式创造？又为了创造什么？“The Belt and Road”作为这个宏大叙事的载体，本身就承载了无数的想象空间。它是一条地理上的连接，也是一条文化上的桥梁，更可能是一条思想上的碰撞。我希望这本书能带领我穿越时空的界限，去感受这种“创造”的力量，去理解它如何从一个理念，演变成如今影响全球格局的现实。这本书是否会探讨，在这个“创造”的过程中，必然伴随着的挑战、机遇和牺牲？我期待它能展现出一种复杂而真实的面貌，而不仅仅是宣传。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

当我看到这本书的名字《Creating Megatrends：The Belt and Road》时，一种强烈的求知欲油然而生。它触及了当下全球最热门、最具争议性的话题之一，却又以一种充满创造性和前瞻性的方式来解读。我一直在思考，所谓的“趋势”是如何形成的？它们真的是自然的演化，还是有人为的推动？而“创造”这个词，更是激发了我对背后逻辑和机制的探究。这本书似乎在告诉我，某些改变世界的力量，并非凭空出现，而是由一系列有目的、有策略的行动所塑造。 “一带一路”倡议，作为这本书的实体载体，它本身就是一个巨大的、正在发生的“巨型趋势”。我非常好奇，这本书会如何剖析这个倡议的孕育、发展和演变过程，它会提供哪些深度的洞察，让我理解这个复杂的全球性工程？ 我期待它能提供一种不同于主流媒体的视角，深入挖掘那些不为人知的细节，揭示出那些促成“巨型趋势”诞生的关键因素，而不仅仅是表面上的陈述。