具體描述
Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.
Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:
What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade
Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk
How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns
Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.
用戶評價
##方法論裏沒有新東西，分析的關鍵在於找齣最關鍵的影響因素，即書中的fulcrum constraint。案例寫得清晰有趣，但做齣類似分析，找齣有意義的constraint需要反復練習（也不一定能像作者這樣成功），本來想打四????，但是對疫情後政策的預判都對瞭就再加一顆吧。
評分##喜歡這種塔勒布類型文風的投資者的書，躬身入局的投資人說話就是比拿著水晶杯的分析師們更真實和勇敢，沒有既要又要的追求全麵，而是現實性務實的錶達瞭自己對地緣政治的個人認識和理解維度的齣發點——約束決定政策偏好，後麵的解釋和預測也都與初始設定相互自洽，很有啓發的一本書
評分##"Preferences are optional and subject to constraints, whereas constraints are neither optional nor subject to preferences" 用詞比較難讀，各種吹自己過去反market consensus & had made the right call……
評分##重要的是理解約束。
評分##庫斯圖裏卡版的塔勒布那種感覺
評分##沒有什麼新意。
評分##"Preferences are optional and subject to constraints, whereas constraints are neither optional nor subject to preferences" 用詞比較難讀，各種吹自己過去反market consensus & had made the right call……
評分##微博看到蘭小歡推薦，看到瞭友鄰的翻譯版
評分##22-06-07：蘭老師推薦。/基於約束而不是偏好的一種分析方法。印象深刻處：2015希臘危機，多極力量分析。
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