《改革新藍圖》一書包括著名經濟學者吳敬璉、成思危、林毅夫、遲福林對十八屆三中全會後中國經濟改革的展望;針對中國未來十年預期,對中國經濟學傢和公眾展開的問捲調查總結;還包括張維迎、辜勝阻、王健林等二十六位經濟學傢、企業傢對中國未來經濟趨勢的預測。內容全麵,對中國經濟的發展做瞭較為全麵的把握。
This book has the well-known Chinese economists Wu Jinglian, Cheng Siwei, Lin Yifu, and Chi Fulin on China’s economic reform after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee. Also include the prediction for the future economy by 30 economists and entrepreneurs such as Zhang Weiying, Gu Shengzu and Wang Jianlin.
《改革新藍圖》一書包括著名經濟學者吳敬璉、成思危、林毅夫、遲福林對十八屆三中全會後中國經濟改革的展望;針對中國未來十年預期,對中國經濟學傢和公眾展開的問捲調查總結;還包括張維迎、辜勝阻、王健林等二十六位經濟學傢、企業傢對中國未來經濟趨勢的預測。內容全麵,對中國經濟的發展做瞭較為全麵的把握。
The Third Plenary Session of 18th CPC Central Committee pointed out that in order to realize the Chinese dream of the great renewal of Chinese nation, we must deepen the all-round reform at a new historic starting point, the key of which is economic structural reform. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee pointed out that we must deepen economic reform focusing on the major issue that market must play a decisive role in resource allocation, and we must stick to and improve the basic economic system, improve modern market system, speed up the improvement of modern market system, macro-economic regulation system, and open economic system, accelerate the transformation of economic growth mode, set up an innovative country to develop a more efficient, more fair and more sustainable economy. This reform is a new starting point of China’s market economic construction, at which the CPC Central Committee draws a blueprint for China’s economic development.
新京報是光明日報主管、光明日報和南方日報兩大報業集團聯閤主辦的綜閤類大型城市日報,是中國一傢獲正式批準的跨地區聯閤辦報試點,也是中國一傢股份製結構的時政類報紙。
The Beijing News was established in Beijing on November 11, 2003. It enjoys the reputation of a widely influential cosmopolitan newspaper focusing mainly on reporting current affairs.
CONTENTS
The beginning of economic reform in a new era
Anticipate a market economy of “version 2.0”
Deal with the relationship between the government and the market
China is expected to be a high-income country in 2020
Adjustment of interest structure is the key to reform
Economist: the biggest dividend comes from reform in the next decade
Reform of leading team deserves expectation
Let private capital exert catfish effect in financial reform
Property tax is not suitable for China’s national conditions
Growth of the housing price will slow down in 2014
Retail industry undergoes the third reform
China’s economic future depends on reform
Mobile devices will be everywhere
Anti-corruption should rely on system reform
The growth rate of e-commerce will be far more than GDP
Growth is expected to maintain 8% in future
There is a huge bonus space in reform
Decline in economic growth is a necessary price
Demographic debt always after the demographic dividend
Entrepreneurs will enter a period of great changes
The benefits of China’s (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone will be clear in half a year
Internet finance is the theme of 2014
Government should use fewer economic stimulus policies
Reducing housing vacancy rate can temper price
Improvement of China’s wealth transparency
Focus of urbanization: Clearing the institutional obstacle
Urgency of the reform of income distribution
Booming budget airlines
Decentralization is the reform highlight in 2013
Investment efficiency of state-owned enterprises should be improved urgently
The dust in electric business platform competition does not fall
More enterprises to enter the agriculture is a good thing
The Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms in brief
Property tax is not suitable for China’s
national conditions
Xu Shanda
Xu Shanda, the former deputy director of China’s State Administration of Taxation, holds many offices and he has ever been an enterprise employee, researcher, and a government official. Now he is devoted to tax reform.
As a firm opponent of property tax, facing questions, he responded that his practice should not be simply taken as speaking for the rich; concerning property issues, he firstly becomes the spokesman of the lowincome group.
A science and technology graduate with good logic thinking as he is, he prefers humanity history to natural scenery and has a taste for works of arts.
Lately, he wrote an article in Century Tide to review the political wisdom of former Premier Zhu Rongji in fiscal and taxation reform in 1993. A comment of this article by Zhu Rongji said that, “vivid scene of that year leaps from the page”.
Property tax has not been approved by local governments
Q: You opposed the imposition of property tax on residential house before, but now what’s your opinion?
Xu: It has been four years since property tax was put forth. After four years’ implementation, it is proved that the property tax should not be levied. Now the pilot places for property tax are Shanghai and Chongqing, China. But until now, Shanghai municipal government has never mentioned its successful pilot of property tax, even if Chongqing mayor Huang Qifan has ever indicated the pilot is very successful in Chongqing, but the collection range there is narrowed down year by year.
In 2011, the taxable price for high-end homes was 9941 RMB per square meter; in 2012, it was changed to 12152 RMB per square meter; in 2013, a new standard of it is 12779 RMB per square meter. In three years of piloting, property tax threshold is increased by 2838 RMB per square meter. It seems illogical conclusion that the pilot is successful, while the range of collection is narrowed year by year.
Meanwhile, except the two pilot cities, no local government volunteers to be the pilot place to levy property tax. On the contrary, upon being rumored to be the pilot place, many local governments will clarify the truth immediately. Such thing ever happened in areas such as Beijing, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Hunan, and Hubei. We can see that almost no local governments approve property tax. When Shenzhen was rumored to be the pilot place, its mayor cleared with three sentences: if the central government has designated Shenzhen as the pilot place, we will do our best to carry out. But until now, we have not received any directive from the central government to levy property tax in Shenzhen. Finally, local government now has no pilot project in Shenzhen.
Property tax originally is local tax, but it is not approved by local governments, and practice has proved this to be true, because for many years no local government except the two pilot places is willing to levy property tax.
Q: Why?
Xu: Originally, there are three objectives in the pilot to reform property tax. The first objective is to increase local government revenue, but now we can see that it doesn’t make any difference to it, because the property tax income for governments in Shanghai and Chongqing is not decent, let alone, this taxation can deal with revenue problems of local governments. The second objective is to reduce China’s household income gap, but practice proves that it doesn’t work. The third objective is to lower housing price, but the fact is that obviously the housing price in Shanghai and Chongqing is rising, rather than decreasing.
The above are the three objectives proposed by proponent to pilot property tax, but none of the three objectives has been realized, so it is not unreasonable that local governments are not willing to pilot property tax. So I don’t agree to enlarge pilot area for property tax, on the contrary, I think that this practice should be stopped in the two pilot places. Collecting residential property tax is unsuitable to the conditions in China.
The beginning of economic reform in a new era
It is clear that China’s market economic construction has come to a new start. At this juncture, by convention, the Beijing News tries to look into China’s economic future at the end of the year.
The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee responded to the market’s expectation on reform. In the Third Plenum Communique, the word “reform” has been mentioned 59 times, far more than ever before, which shows the difficulty, urgency and determination of reform.
Where should the reform start from? Opinions vary. This conference responded to this by putting forth 15 key points of reform such as “Improving modern market system”, which declared the start of economic reform in a new era. To be more specific, looking ahead, we expect to have China’s market economy system further updated, and this expectation is worthwhile.
It was in 1994, when the Third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee was held, that China’s market economic system began to be established. After 20 years’ development, the dividends of the new economic system have undoubtedly benefited the great majority of Chinese people and profoundly transformed the structure of the world economy. Though in the last 20 years many problems have accumulated in the process of China’s marketization process, and tremendous differences exist among people benefiting from reform, yet it is believed that China’s move to market economy is irreversible. Therefore, it is urgently required that we should resolve problems in reform with greater determination and start the new era of reform.
By looking back, we can say that the construction of China’s market economy in the past 20 years is the fundamental cause underlying China’s continuously rapid growth to the world second largest economy; however, we cannot deny that the rapid growth is not only the dividends from transition into market system, but also closely related to the “dividends from globalization” as China has joined the WTO and has been actively involved in the world economic system. The world gradually becomes “flat” for China with fading advantage of backwardness. It is a top priority to begin updating the imperfect market economic system.
To update, we need to face up to the problems existing in the current market economic system and deal with them one by one.
To sum up, though the old planned economic system has been transformed into the market economic system, the remains of the former one are still hindering market-oriented reform.
For example, in our economy, we can see that planned economy still prevails but takes “review and approval” as a cover-up. Review and approval still exists for a grand aim that has never been achieved; much worse, it has become a means to rent-seeking. For example, the construction of every steel mill should go through a series of review and approval, but the result of this is that we set up a market with overcapacity. Another example is that, from the central government to the local governments, a specific plan for the industry is made, but at times, we are faced with the reality that the industrial structure should be readjusted. But we rarely meet such troubles in less-regulated industries.
One reason for these problems is that the role of market in resource allocation is restricted to some extent, and the relation between market and government is not well coordinated. Another reason is that market in China is still not unified.
In the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the top priority of economic system reform has been pointed out clearly that we should strike a balance between the role of the government and that of the market and make sure that market plays a decisive role in resource allocation so as to set up a unified and open market system with orderly competition. This response is also a conclusive rescue to the ills of China’s market economic system over the past 20 years. In that sense, we should give due respect to market and get it to play its role deserved and operate openly under the rule of laws. All this is a starting point to update China’s economic system.
Take Chinese economist Wu Jinglian’s word, we can say that previous market economic system in China is an old 1.0 version, whereas after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee the version has been updated to 2.0 version, under which the property rights should be protected adequately, prices should be very open, government’s right to manage market should be clearly defined, monopoly and local protectionism should be eliminated, and private capital and state-owned capital should be equally treated.
In order to achieve these aims, we must “properly deal with the relation between the government and market” just as has been pointed out in the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee. As to the relation between government and market, the former should decentralize its power to the latter. In addition, it has been declared in this session that we must unswervingly strengthen and develop the public economy, and also unswervingly encourage, support and guide the development of the non-public economy, and treat state capital and private capital alike. All these measures are the indispensable steps to update market economic system.
This Third Plenary Session can be regarded as a blueprint for China to deepen all-round reform. But the so-called blueprint is just a starting point in our new journey of economic reform.
Chief editor of Economic Information Department of the Beijing
News
Wang Haitao
閱讀涉及國傢宏觀戰略的書籍時,一個常常被忽視但至關重要的方麵是其國際語境的嵌入性。2013到2020年間,全球地緣政治的緊張局勢與貿易保護主義的抬頭,對中國的改革進程無疑構成瞭巨大的外部壓力。因此,我非常關注書中對“雙循環”戰略的早期醞釀和部署是否有深入的探討。改革的藍圖,絕不可能是在真空裏繪製的,它必然是對外部不確定性的主動迴應和戰略預判。這本書是否能清晰地闡釋,在外部環境趨緊的背景下,內部改革的節奏和側重點是如何調整的?特彆是在金融開放和人民幣國際化方麵,外部的衝擊是否加速瞭某些內部改革的步伐?這種內外部因素的交互作用,是理解中國經濟韌性的關鍵所在。我期待作者能提供一種動態的、辯證的視角,而不是將內部改革視為一個孤立的進程,而是將其置於全球化與逆全球化角力的宏大棋局中進行考察。
評分這本書的英文譯名,[China: Embracing the Market Economy 2.0],本身就提齣瞭一個極具挑戰性的命題:如果說1.0是鄧小平時代的“摸著石頭過河”,那麼2.0版本又意味著什麼?這不僅僅是量的積纍,更可能是質的飛躍或路徑的根本性調整。我個人對於這種“升級換代”的論述非常感興趣。它暗示著中國經濟體製的演進不再是簡單的修補或微調,而是需要一套全新的理論框架和操作指南來指導。我希望能從書中看到對“新常態”下,要素市場化、政府職能轉變、國有企業改革等核心議題的深入剖析。更重要的是,這種“2.0”的提法,是否意味著在某些領域,中國正在嘗試跳齣傳統西方經濟學的範式,構建一套具有自身特色的、更具適應性的現代化路徑?這種跨越式的理論建構,往往是理解一個國傢未來走嚮的鑰匙。它要求作者具備極強的理論功底和敏銳的現實洞察力,纔能描繪齣這一宏大敘事的清晰輪廓。
評分從純粹的學術閱讀體驗來看,這本書的翻譯質量和注釋的詳盡程度,直接決定瞭其作為英文版讀物的價值。如果它旨在麵嚮國際讀者闡釋中國復雜的改革邏輯,那麼語言的精確性和概念的清晰度就顯得尤為重要。我希望譯者不僅是簡單地將中文術語對譯,而是能真正捕捉到那些帶有中國特定政治經濟含義的詞匯,並提供恰當的解釋,確保西方讀者能夠理解其深層次的含義,避免“翻譯陷阱”。例如,像“簡政放權”或“混閤所有製”這類詞匯,在不同的文化語境下很容易産生歧義。一本優秀的國際視野下的學術著作,應該緻力於充當一座跨文化的橋梁,用清晰、嚴謹的邏輯引導讀者進入一個復雜的體係。因此,對書中引用的官方文件、專傢訪談的來源標注,以及對關鍵術語的背景介紹,我都非常看重,因為它們構成瞭支撐起整個“藍圖”論述的堅實地基。
評分作為一個長期關注區域發展和産業政策的讀者,我對書中可能涉及的地方政府行為和産業集群發展的內容抱有極大的期待。改革的落地,最終要體現在每一塊土地上的投資決策和資源配置中。我希望這本書能夠提供一些具體的案例研究,展示在新的政策導嚮下,哪些地區成為瞭改革的先行者,他們采用瞭哪些創新的治理模式來激發市場活力。例如,在供給側結構性改革的浪潮中,傳統重工業基地是如何實現鳳凰涅槃的?高新技術産業的爆發式增長背後,政府的引導基金和監管框架又扮演瞭何種微妙的角色?這些細節,往往是宏觀經濟數據無法完全捕捉到的。一本好的改革史,不應該隻是高層會議的記錄,更應該是無數企業傢的汗水和地方官員的智慧交織而成的復雜織物。我期待這本書能夠提供這種多維度的視角,讓讀者能夠感受到改革的“溫度”和“力度”。
評分這部著作的標題,光是“改革新藍圖”這幾個字,就勾勒齣瞭一幅波瀾壯闊的曆史畫捲,讓人不禁聯想到那個風雲激蕩的年代。我記得我拿到這本書的時候,正值對中國經濟轉型期充滿好奇和探索欲的時候。這本書的厚度,以及封麵上那種沉穩、略帶曆史感的字體設計,都暗示著其中蘊含著深刻的洞見與詳實的資料。我之所以被它吸引,首先是因為它聚焦於一個極其關鍵的時間窗口——2013年到2020年,這不僅是中國深化改革進入攻堅期的關鍵階段,也是全球經濟格局發生深刻變化的重要時期。作者顯然沒有滿足於宏觀敘事,而是試圖穿透那些官方報告的錶層,去探究在具體政策製定和執行層麵,究竟有哪些“新藍圖”在被繪製和描摹。我期待看到的是,作者如何巧妙地平衡瞭頂層設計與基層實踐之間的關係,那些宏大的戰略構想是如何在復雜的現實土壤中生根發芽,又遇到瞭哪些意想不到的阻力或催化劑。這種對過程的細緻描摹,遠比單純的結果展示更引人入勝,因為它揭示瞭決策背後的邏輯鏈條和人性博弈。
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